CREDIT CRUNCH!!

[GARETH BALDWIN]

thoughts please gents, housing market? interest rates? unemployment?
i own a building company in aberdeen, normally v busy. but at the moment quite quiet, the biggest job i have is thanks to a company closing and they are repairing their building before handing back to owner!
does not look good.

[John Mc]

I work in the construction industry as a Construction Consultant and what we are seeing at the moment is a break whilst companies assess their balance sheets, or public entities set their budgets (realign them). Projects will come back on stream but more likely to be reduced in scope to meet the revised budgets.

For example, projects that were ready to go have to be re-designed to the new affordability levels which takes time for the design team to re-assess and consult the users to ensure that the project provides the best value for money to each client.

All this consultation usually takes months to pull together and reassess. This will happen in parallel to the financial market loosening again and hopefully by the time the revised business case and design is completed, the financial market will be lending all round and the projects can kick off.

In some sectors we are finding a perverse situation where there aren't enough skilled people to meet the demand especially certain types of contracts and various specialisms around sustainability - low carbon buildings etc due to changes in legislation and regulations.

This adds to project delays. There are obviously people around to do the work but when they aren't on frameworks etc it takes ages to find a way to appoint them to do the work and you have to be ever more ingenious about how you do it so you don't breach European Tendering rules.

In a nutshell, I reckon (personal opinion) that by the end of this year the financial systems will be looking more positive and in a better position to lend again although they will be wary of some institutions and credit ratings/worthiness will be scrutinised unlike the past decade where you got credit with every pack of Cornflakes!!

If you can ride out the downturn until the end of this year I suspect that a lot of people will be safe. When it picks up, wages will increase as people won't be able to hire fast enough and the whole cycle will repeat itself and most likely people won't ultimately learn!! Just like the last recession and the one before that!! Human nature is to be fickle and "this time it will be different" ultimately, the result is the same.

Interest rates will remain depressed until mid-next year I suspect, unless a market shock occurs and we enter a boom period (unlikely).

Unemployment will mirror interest rates in that when demand returns, people will want to hire again, inflation will pick up (more people earning and therefore spending) and interest rates will rise to curb inflation. The whole world is in this situation so a global rise is likely to happen when it turns around.

My worry is that if the Conservatives get into power they will cut public spending which will (rightly) curb public borrowing but it will send even more people into the doldrums and put an even bigger strain on the burgeoning social security budget (over 2m people claiming). At least we are spending at the moment to develop infrastructure which will better place the UK plc when we emerge from recession.

The Conservatives will cut spending on services and we will suffer as a nation a lot worse. I'd rather pay more taxes and have work to do than have no job and still pay taxes!! Don't know about anyone else though...

[eck]

thoughts please gents, housing market? interest rates? unemployment?
i own a building company in aberdeen, normally v busy. but at the moment quite quiet, the biggest job i have is thanks to a company closing and they are repairing their building before handing back to owner!
does not look good.

Do you give discount to fellow WR1OC members, currently fighting with the council planners over extension plans.

[Foley]

Am back with the council working as a plumber cause there is no work on the sites just now, The council are the only people who still have work in my area, Was working on a large building site and one friday it just shut down and still hasn't opened up again, This country is in a sad state atm and i can't see the building construction picking up anytime soon

[GARETH BALDWIN]

not good news.

very good reply John Mc Tiddler (Dogging Expert). i agree that the conservatives will cause more stress so in the next general i will be voting.

mr Eck. yes i would do a fair price for you, i take it you stay in the aberdeen area?

[Azyman]

i work in the asbestos/construction/demolition/land remediation industry we seem to of been quite busy uptill know

we have won several Local Goverment contracts over the last month
things should be good for all of july and august when all the schools close as they are full of asbestos

as for land remediation thats completly dried up the big players still have land but just not spending any money to get it ready for new builds

cant see much changing this year either,

it will be the survival of the fittest in the construction industry this year

[bbigman2000]

I do sympathise with you gent's involved in the construction trade, However would it not be fair to say that you guys had your boom time for atleast 2 years, and charged inflated prices and filled your banks up nicely.

I recall calling a few builders to put an extension on a one of my houses and they were "too Busy" to come and quote me, and those that did quoted excessive prices because they could and because they didnt need the work as they had "big jobs on.

If those involved in that industry had done the sensible thing like every other professional business they would have seen and prepped for potential downturns in the economy.

We work in security services and had 3 hard years through the building and housing boom, as people simply were not using the pubs and clubs, they were all going abroad, buying new houses and car's instead.

Now, In the last 8 months, I have seen a massive increase in turnover and a much larger requirement for security services as people turn to crime to pay bills and turn to drink to drown there sorrows as they cannot afford holidays.

I think its swings and roundabouts, I do employ atleast 10 machine operators, joiners, painters, brickies and plumbers myself on a part time basis and they have certainly all felt this recession.

[Azyman]

quote
I recall calling a few builders to put an extension on a one of my houses and they were "too Busy" to come and quote me, and those that did quoted excessive prices because they could and because they didnt need the work as they had "big jobs on.

thats always been the same with small builders [one man bands]
if they can get it they will
the problems they got know is that all the big companies are looking to do the liitle jobs just for turnover

in any recession some will loose and some will gain

quote
[Now, In the last 8 months, I have seen a massive increase in turnover and a much larger requirement for security services as people turn to crime to pay bills and turn to drink to drown there sorrows as they cannot afford holidays]

so watch out for builders with swag bags and white transits as where bbigman lives they are all piss heads and criminals

[bbigman2000]

No Geoff these were not one man bands, we have a small rental portfolio and I invited medium to large size firms to tender for the work.

[Azyman]

No Geoff these were not one man bands, we have a small rental portfolio and I invited medium to large size firms to tender for the work.

i can believe that,
its the old saying when its good its good when its bad its bad

so do you need any beefy southern builders in your security company

i used to work along side top gaurd security years ago when i had a scaffolding company doing the raves back in the day must say that was an eye opener but great fun

[bbigman2000]

Unfortunatley back in November 07 we came under a Scotland wide and Now nationwide Licensing scheme which rendered many many door staff and security guards no longer employable.

You must now have atleast 5 years of impeccable background checks, even a dink driving conviction can put you out of the running.

Its brought about a lot of changes, some good and some bad.

[eck]

:lol: Unfortunatley back in November 07 we came under a Scotland wide and Now nationwide Licensing scheme which rendered many many door staff and security guards no longer employable.

You must now have atleast 5 years of impeccable background checks, even a dink driving conviction can put you out of the running.

Its brought about a lot of changes, some good and some bad.

When they brought out the licensing scheme in Aberdeen +/-12 years ago many off the guys i worked with had to jack in, not because they had criminal records but they couldn't write to fill out the registration form

[bbigman2000]

pmsl, yes that was the old system run by the council mate!

[POESY]

I also work in construction and it is tough.

Money is tight and being diverse is key at the moment.

When will it get better? I dont think anyone really knows the answer to that question - be nice if it would even just steady off right now tbh!!

[hightower]

the building industry is definetly a boom bust my dad is a joiner and is quiet the now.
with the price of oil the firm i work comapny has knocked its spending a bit but luckily our pay is still going up as of a skills shortage most of the guys i work with are more than twice my age!! and are a few years of retirement so they are recriting to replace them the now as it takes a while to get up to speed.

[Megaman]

the IT industry has slowed down too... Since the euro/dollar vs pound rate went silly, hardware is about a third more expensive than it was this time last year especially when your talking about server bits. The knock on effect is everyone is waiting for prices to come down so no one is spending... also as money is tight no one is spending on precautionary things now too like checking backups or keeping backup software up to date etc which is worrying and risky... hopefully it will pick up again soon

[The Swede]

Clients tend to be more careful with their budgets at the moment in our industry too. But in the end, there is also a big shift to cut costs and that's what we work on at the moment

[The Swede]

Dan just texted me he's in Australia on holiday. Leaving to New Zealand tomorrow and the pop over to South Africa. Credit crunch doesn't seem to hit everyone

[bbigman2000]

So he picked up the CSL and then took off round the world ?!

[The Swede]

So he picked up the CSL and then took off round the world ?!

Yup. The buyer of his old scoob gave him a very nice price so he thought he'd splash out on a nice holiday too.

[Megaman]

Dont tell scoobydan but if hes payed enough for dan to afford a CSL and a trip around the world - he paid too much.. maybe he wants to buy my old car

[The Swede]

You got a point there.

Not really fair actually, is it?

[bbigman2000]

I don't know but a round the world trip would be fantastic, If only I had the time to do it, I can't seem to take more than four days off at a time for fear of coming home to a company in ruins!

[presa900]

Yep credit crunch is certainly biting, I too work within the construction industry as a civils consultant and work has completely dropped off a cliff at the moment, with only local government work opportunities on the horizon.

As such it has pushed me into selling the M5 last week
Gutted to see it go, but at least I managed to get back what I paid for it.

So things are certainly pretty sh1t at the moment, any recovery or even stabilisation would be very welcomed.

I think whichever party is in government in a year or two's time will soon realise that they just can't afford to keep public spending at the rate it is at the moment, the Uks' debt is going to be astronomical as it is.

Basically this country is fcuked..........

[WR1 Bro]

OMG. Sorry to hear that Doug. Knowing, there are bigger and better plans afoot.

[bbigman2000]

Noooooooooooooo! I am really sorry to hear that also Presa.. that totally sucks, I hope things pick up for you again real soon bud.

Glen

[The Swede]

Yep credit crunch is certainly biting, I too work within the construction industry as a civils consultant and work has completely dropped off a cliff at the moment, with only local government work opportunities on the horizon.

As such it has pushed me into selling the M5 last week
Gutted to see it go, but at least I managed to get back what I paid for it.

So things are certainly pretty sh1t at the moment, any recovery or even stabilisation would be very welcomed.

I think whichever party is in government in a year or two's time will soon realise that they just can't afford to keep public spending at the rate it is at the moment, the Uks' debt is going to be astronomical as it is.

Basically this country is fcuked..........

Really sorry to hear that, mate.

Do you actually have experience with consulting to the government?

Any experience with construction of plants/factories ?

I have opportunities potenially in both areas. Give me a buzz to discuss.

[POESY]

Thats bad news presa, really is.

Up until a couple of years ago we were redeveloping office blocks smack bang in the city centre and enjoying the fruits of our labour.

Today we focus on sports centre, swimming pools, gyms, etc in the suburbs because, fortunately, people still seem to want to get fit and funding from both the private and public sectors in these fields hasnt completely dried up.

TBH its what's getting us through things at the moment because the housing downturn has also hurt our portfolio and if we hadnt diversified we'd really be stuck now!!

Still had to sell the 400 though and that hurt, real bad!!

Hopefully things will turn, but i think itll still be a while yet, and then we hope to be in an even stronger position - just got to get through the right now.

Good luck folks!!

[p060064h]

Dont know wat all this talk about no work cause of the credit crunch is all about.

I got a right good welding job today.

Theres an open top bus in manchester that needs the roof putting back on.

[Clark]